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September 2009
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Obama Decides to Shelve Missile shield

President Obama has dropped plans to deploy a ballistic-missile defence shield in Central Europe. The previous president, George W. Bush, had planned to put a battery of ten ballistic interceptors in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic. This plan was fiercely opposed by Russia, and President Medvedev announced that he intended to deploy missiles on the EU's eastern border as a deterrent. This latest development is a major diplomatic coup for Moscow, where the abandonment of the Bush administration's missile plans is seen as "a mistake that is now being corrected. This is a recognition by the Americans of the rightness of our arguments about the reality of the threat, or rather the lack of one, from Iran's missiles. Finally, the Americans have agreed with us". George Friedman, a leading US defence consultant, said, "Russia was never going to give ground on Iran, so to give this away now just seems like an impotent concession". He also commented that "as long as Russia felt threatened by US support for the former Soviet states of Ukraine and Georgia, the Kremlin would not surrender its influence over policy on Iran".

A Russian foreign policy expert claimed that the main reason for President Obama's decision was "Russia's uncompromising position on the issue", whilst another Russian observer commented that "there was evidence that today's American government has a better understanding of the Russian concerns". In The Daily Telegraph, Con Coughlin observed that "the Russians will claim a victory in their attempts to halt Washington's encroachment into what they regard as their sphere of influence". A prominent Russian foreign affairs expert commented, "The Obama administration is starting to understand us! Now we can talk about restoration of the strategic partnership between Russia and the United States". A Daily Telegraph observer in Moscow had this to say, "Widely trailed but highly significant, President Obama's decision hands the Kremlin a coup that will boost Mr. Putin's influence at home and abroad (see paragraph below). In the coming days, ordinary Russians will be told that the policy reversal is proof that Russia is once again a serious player in the world".

Things look very different from the standpoint of Poland and the Czech Republic. Many in Poland fear that, under Obama, "US interest in its Eastern European allies is waning. After he entered office, Eastern European countries like the Czech Republic, Poland, Ukraine and even Georgia became less strategically important to him". Some are saying that "Obama abandoned plans for the weapons system solely to improve ties with Moscow". Republicans in Congress have accused the Obama administration of "putting its relations with the Kremlin ahead of the security of Nato allies in Europe". The former Polish President, Lech Walesa, is worried that the new US administration was "turning away from its traditional allies in Central Europe to placate Russia", and added, "We should reconsider our approach to the United States".

The Bush administration's plan was to site their defence shield in Poland to guard against intercontinental missile attack from Iran. Obama's new plan would rely largely on existing weapons, particularly the US Navy's ship-based short-and-medium-range missile defence system, to counter the more immediate threat of Iranian short and medium-range missiles, which could strike Israel and many parts of Europe. The Daily Telegraph commented, "By focussing on Iran's short and medium-range missiles, the Obama administration is recommitting itself in an explicit way to the long-term defence of Europe". The Pentagon plans to deploy cruisers and destroyers with sophisticated radars and anti-missile interceptors to the eastern Mediterranean and the North Sea.
Revival of Middle East Peace Talks

On 22 September, President Obama chaired a summit with the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Palestine Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas. This is regarded as the American administration's "last-minute effort to end the tripartite summit with an announcement of the renewal of the Israeli-Palestinian talks". The Obama administration "wants to pave the way for revived negotiations to end the more than 60-year-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict". A White House spokesman told reporters that the Administration has no "grand expectations" of the meeting. However, the trilateral summit "sends an important signal about President Obama's determination to drive the process forward in spite of the obstacles".

Accompanying Mr. Netanyahu, will be the Israeli Defence Minister, Ehud Barak, who in a pre-summit meeting with his American counterpart, Defence Secretary Robert Gates, stressed "his long-standing position that any agreement between Israel and the Palestinians must include an end to the conflict and an end to further claims". Also visiting America will be the Israeli Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, who said that Obama's ideas were "unrealistic". Referring to the Oslo Accords, he said, "Sixteen years have passed since then. Even in another sixteen years, we won't have an agreement".

President Obama is committed to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict "as a matter of high priority and he is willing to invest the energies of his administration in the endeavour". The summit will provide the American President with the opportunity to present his vision for peace between Israel and the Palestinians which, according to some reports, "will aim to limit negotiation to two years and bring about an agreement by the end of that period".

Before the talks took place, an Arab newspaper was reporting that "the United States had handed over a draft of the peace proposal to the Palestinian Authority and other Arabs for their perusal". An official of the Palestinian Authority revealed the contents to the newspaper, which included "the creation of a Palestinian Authority state by 2011". Other items in the plan included "an international presence in the Jordan Valley", and the transfer to Arab-Islamic control of "the Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem" - this presumably includes the Temple Mount. The Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, observed, "The hands of the American administration are not particularly clean. The State Department envoys assured the Palestinians that Washington was on their side this time, and was not going to yield to the Israelis".

In another article in The Daily Telegraph, Con Coughlin reviewed the "trials and tribulations" that have confronted Israel during its 61-year existence. Despite these pressing difficulties, "the Israelis have been able to take comfort from the fact that, no matter how great the threat, they could always rely on the support of their closest ally, the United States". But the situation was different today. "When Israel arguably faces a threat to its very existence from Iran's nuclear ambitions, the country suddenly finds itself more isolated than ever before, shunned by its erstwhile defender and protector".

Referring to the strained relations between Jerusalem and Washington before Barack Obama took office, he said, "All is not well with what Washington insiders refer to as the real special relationship. Unfortunately for Mr. Netanyahu, it is Israel, rather than the Palestinians and their Arab supporters, that now finds itself in Washington's sights as the Obama administration prepares to set out its own proposals for a lasting comprehensive peace deal". As one senior Israeli official commented, "The settlements are just one of many issues that need to be discussed as part of the peace process, but by focussing on them, the Obama administration is deliberately making the Israelis look the villains of the piece".

Perhaps the heading to Coughlin's article spells it out, The isolation of Israel could have disastrous consequences for us all.
A Putin Comeback?

An article in The Daily Telegraph announced, Putin planning to take back old job from Medvedev. "Vladimir Putin has given his strongest signal yet that he may reassume the presidency at the next election in 2012". Putin said, "He and Dmitry Medvedev would decide between them, when the time came, who would stand at the next election. In 2012 we shall think together and take into account the realities of the time, our personal plans, the political landscape and we will take a decision". Opinion polls and experts said he "remained the most popular and powerful politician in Russia". In Russia, Putin is viewed by many Russians as "the nation's Saviour who needs to return to the presidency to steady the rolling ship again".
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